El miércoles 7 de abril a las 14 horas tendrá lugar un Seminario del IESTA (SIESTA) titulado Microfoundations of the Reversal in the Association Between Development and Fertility. La charla estará a cargo de Daniel Ciganda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research).
La actividad será virtual.
ID: 895 1462 8879
The global and sustained decline of birth rates known as the demographic transition occurred in the context of an unprecedented increase in the amount of resources available to individuals and families. In the last decade, however, this long-term negative association between development and fertility has sharply reversed. Several studies have shown how leading countries with respect to various social and economic indicators, also have higher fertility rates. But the micro-level dynamics behind this reversal are still a matter of debate. In this article we show how it is still possible to simulate the observed macro level reversal without having to assume that the structure of the relationship between resources and reproductive outcomes has changed at the individual level. Instead, we argue that the key to understand current fertility trends lies in the counteracting effects of development on the planned and the unplanned component of fertility rates. We test our hypothesis by generating data from an individual-level computational model of the reproductive process that is consistent with post-baby boom fertility trends in Europe.